The “new nukes” part of Putin’s state-of-the-nation speech was aimed at Europe

Not being a professional expert myself, I respectfully disagree with most of the expert community that says that Putin's announcement of new nuclear weapons (an underwater drone, a "nuclear-powered nuclear missile" and a hypersonic missile) is aimed primarily at Russia being taken seriously. https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/969375084375937025 And I also disagree with the great Mark Galeotti, who says… Continue reading The “new nukes” part of Putin’s state-of-the-nation speech was aimed at Europe

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What if Russia lets go of the psyops rope? (Part 1 of 2)

I wanted to make this post as straightforward and brief as I can, since I think the point is very logical, simple, important and yet so-far unreported in the many, many media outlets covering Russiagate. I wasn't able to keep it brief, and therefore I'm forced to make my first two-part post. There are just… Continue reading What if Russia lets go of the psyops rope? (Part 1 of 2)

The Fox & the Hedgehog: a Unified #TrumpRussia Theory

The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.                                   Archilochus, 700 B.C. I had a brainwave. I won't bury the lede: I have what I believe is an original theory of Trump and Russia in the… Continue reading The Fox & the Hedgehog: a Unified #TrumpRussia Theory

The death of consent

The New York Times Sunday edition came out with a remarkable editorial today. https://twitter.com/nytopinion/status/876369897638551552 The remarkable part wasn't that they called upon President Trump to declare his agreement with the US intelligence community assessment on alleged (and it is, in actual fact, only alleged, albeit by very serious people who should be taken seriously) Russian… Continue reading The death of consent

A Separate Peace

No, this isn't about the tearjerker John Knowles novel. It's about that question of the day, "what does Putin want?" And a separate peace is also something I think is becoming more likely based on recent events. My thesis is: Russia's leadership, and to a large extent the Russian population, want to reach a separate… Continue reading A Separate Peace

I suspect Putin is considering not running for re-election

It's very hard for me to put my finger on why I suspect this, but I've had this gut feeling for some time that Vladimir Putin is seriously weighing whether or not to run for re-election in 2018. I decided that with Putin's annual Q+A session coming up on Thursday, I might as well throw… Continue reading I suspect Putin is considering not running for re-election

If Trump leaves office early, what next?

There has been a lot of talk about Trump's presidency ending early, whether by resignation, impeachment, removal under the 25th Amendment to the Constitution, or otherwise (even a military coup). There hasn't been much attention paid to what happens afterwards though. One thing that won't happen: a revote or special election. https://twitter.com/rubenkmajor/status/866547659321901056 A "do-over" of the… Continue reading If Trump leaves office early, what next?