No, this isn't about the tearjerker John Knowles novel. It's about that question of the day, "what does Putin want?" And a separate peace is also something I think is becoming more likely based on recent events. My thesis is: Russia's leadership, and to a large extent the Russian population, want to reach a separate… Continue reading A Separate Peace
It's very hard for me to put my finger on why I suspect this, but I've had this gut feeling for some time that Vladimir Putin is seriously weighing whether or not to run for re-election in 2018. I decided that with Putin's annual Q+A session coming up on Thursday, I might as well throw… Continue reading I suspect Putin is considering not running for re-election
Jim Comey, the Quintessential Expert With Poor Judgment Jim Comey is the perfect example of how an expert, particularly one who has extremely high regard for himself and his own expertise, can fall into a trap of mistaking one's own superior knowledge for good judgment. Comey is an expert on the law and on the… Continue reading Jim Comey and the Too Much Democracy Argument
It's official: Germany hates Trump. Across the whole German political spectrum, Germans have denounced Trump. The grievances are many: Trump has demanded that NATO countries, and Germany (NATO's second-largest economy) accelerate defense spending to meet the agreed target of 2% of GDP, which Germany has resisted, saying it prefers to focus on diplomacy and international… Continue reading Trump’s Inverse Wolfowitz Doctrine
Yesterday Hillary Clinton appeared onstage at the Code tech conference in California. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgdJlzuaJ6k She took questions from two journalists who joined her onstage, as well as questions from the audience. And of course she was asked about her defeat in the 2016 election. Anyone who follows Hillary in the news would expect that she'd… Continue reading #Hillary channels her inner #LouiseMensch
Before writing this post I googled the term "structural adversaries" to see whether I'd coined it. I didn't. But generally it means what I thought it should mean: people or entities that are bound to be adversaries by virtue of the system in which they exist. If you ask most Americans today why Russia and… Continue reading The US and Russia are structural adversaries
There has been a lot of talk about Trump's presidency ending early, whether by resignation, impeachment, removal under the 25th Amendment to the Constitution, or otherwise (even a military coup). There hasn't been much attention paid to what happens afterwards though. One thing that won't happen: a revote or special election. https://twitter.com/rubenkmajor/status/866547659321901056 A "do-over" of the… Continue reading If Trump leaves office early, what next?